Confidence intervals for maximal reliability in tau‐equivalent models

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new developed product. The tau‐equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability. In this paper we stress the use of confidence intervals to assess reliability, as this allows for a more critical assessment of the items as measurement instruments. To improve the reliability one can use a weighted sum as the outcome of the test rather than an unweighted sum. In principle, the weights may be chosen so as to obtain maximal reliability. We propose two new confidence intervals for the maximal reliability in the tau‐equivalent model and we compare these two new intervals with intervals derived earlier in Yuan and Bentler (Psychometrika, 67 , 2002, 251) and Raykov and Penev (Multivariate Behavioral Research, 41 , 2006, 15). The comparison involves coverage curves, a methodology that is new in the field of reliability. The existing Yuan–Bentler and Raykov–Penev intervals are shown to overestimate the maximal reliability, whereas one of our proposed intervals, the stable interval, performs very well. This stable interval hardly shows any bias, and has a coverage for the true value which is approximately equal to the confidence level.     

国债规模的金融经济分析

国债是国家进行宏观调控的重要工具,就国债的规模进行金融经济分析,并针对当前我国经济形势提出对国债规模的一些认识。尽管国债规模较大,而且有继续扩大的趋势,由于我国当前的经济形势所需,且我国具备扩大国债规模的条件,国债规模的扩大将有利于中国经济发展和金融稳定。     

中国“两型社会”建设及“两型产业”发展研究——基于长株潭城市群的实证分析

本文基于长株潭城市群的实证研究,认为推进两型社会建设必须依托最大供给半径与最大需求半径对称的最大空间规模效益的现代化城市群;而构建两型社会城市群的关键措施,又在发展能够满足该城市群需求且符合资源节约型和环境友好型要求的两型产业。这样,在宏观上促使城市群制造业实现投入产出效率的最大化,通过生产方式集约化与技术现代化,带动生活消费方式与整个发展方式的转变,即可实现经济效益、生态效益与社会效益相统一,从而获得最大发展、最大节约、最大环保的两型社会建设合意的财富体。     

平台化组织柔性人力资源管理的内涵及测度研究

在数字经济时代背景下,组织平台化转型的趋势对传统的柔性人力资源管理提出了新的挑战。目前有关柔性人力资源管理的研究仅聚焦于传统组织,无法体现出组织平台化转型背景下管理边界、管理单元和管理流程等方面的特点。因此本文选取平台化组织中人力资源管理部门负责人作为研究样本,通过扎根理论探讨平台化组织柔性人力资源管理的结构维度,并在此基础上开发并检验测量量表。研究结果表明,平台化组织柔性人力资源管理包括“结构柔性人力资源管理、资源柔性人力资源管理和过程柔性人力资源管理”三个维度,共13个题项。同时,因子分析结果亦表明,本文所开发的量表具有良好的信度和效度。     

Multiproduct Outputs and Scale Economies in Electric Power Production: Some New Estimates

The present study offers an argument, through a technical exposition, which suggests that there are cost differences inherent in serving different types of buyers in the electric utilities industry. To this end, we employ a translog joint cost function (for electricity production) with three outputs, which allows for the examination of the cost differences between wholesale and retail trade for vertically integrated, investor-owned companies in the industry. The regression estimates suggest different costs at the means, however the estimated marginal cost curve for wholesale power is not as robust as those for low-voltage and industrial power.     

Measuring Scale Efficiency from a Translog Production Function

In parametric analysis based on a frontier production function, usually the scale elasticity rather than scale efficiency level is reported. In this paper we show how one can use an estimated translog production function to obtain output- and input-oriented measures of scale efficiency at an observed input bundle. We also show how the estimated model can be used to determine the optimal quantity of labor input for an exogenously fixed quantity of capital.     

经营规模、分工深化对小农户化肥减量施用的影响——以黄河流域玉米种植户为例

[目的]通过分析黄河流域3省区玉米种植户化肥施用强度与减施情况,探析经营规模与化肥施用强度非线性关系及纵向分工深化的中介作用。[方法]文章基于扩展回归模型,使用2020年黄河流域中甘肃、宁夏以及陕西3省区玉米种植户问卷调查数据,分析经营规模和分工深化对农户化肥使用量的影响及作用机制。[结果]（1）扩大经营规模可以显著抑制农户化肥的过量施用,但当达到一定规模后,这种抑制效应消失,继续扩大经营规模将不再降低农户化肥施用强度。（2）经营规模与纵向分工卷入程度之间也存在“U型”的非线性关系,在达到一定规模之前,经营规模的扩大会显著提高农户服务外包的程度。（3）扩大经营规模可以通过提高纵向分工卷入程度进而降低农户化肥施用强度。[结论]玉米种植农户经营规模与化肥施用强度间存在“U型”的非线性关系,且纵向分工卷入程度在经营规模与化肥使用强度间存在完全中介作用。     

数字普惠金融对农户创业行为的影响

利用面板数据模型阐释数字普惠金融对资源获取、人力资本培训和区域经济增长的功能效应,分析数字普惠金融对农民创业行为的动态影响。结果表明：数字普惠金融总指数对农户创业决策具有显著的激励作用,3个细分指标中覆盖广度的作用最为明显。异质性分析结果揭示了在数字普惠金融发展更完善的东中部地区,数字普惠金融的创业存在显著促进作用,对农户创业规模的正向影响更为明显。最后根据结论提出政策建议。     

Geographic Concentration and Increasing Returns

Abstract. Economic activities are highly clustered. Why is geographic concentration becoming a predominant feature of industrialized economies? On the basis of the empirical models developed by the new theories of international trade, our answer is that increasing returns are the driving force of economic geography in the US as well as in Europe. In so doing, we review several econometric methods proposed in the literature to separate and to test alternative theoretical paradigms.     

浅析房价虚高对经济的影响

近期房价过高已成为人们热点关注的一个话题。过高的房价会给经济带来一系列的负面影响。首先,人们为了还银行贷款而降低了自己的边际消费倾向,使得消费品需求不足,这样将大大抵消投资扩张对经济增长的拉动作用。其次,被归还的大量银行贷款又被用于投资。这样更会加剧经济过热,拉动生产资料的价格,从而造成国内需求结构不合理的局面。最为重要的一点是,由于投资造成的货币供应的持续增加,很容易造成通货膨胀,而且现在已经有这种倾向了。房价过高的原因在于供给需求结构不合理,高价房供应太多,经济房严重不足,应该利用税收调整使其趋向合理。